NXPI Q2 2025: Auto revenue to grow mid-single-digit Q3, 57% margin
- Accelerating Automotive Recovery: Management highlighted a clear turnaround in the automotive segment—with Tier 1 inventories normalizing and shifting from inventory burn to natural end demand—indicating that sequential growth is already underway and could drive further revenue expansion.
- Disciplined Inventory Management: The company maintains a tight channel inventory (nine weeks with a potential to selectively increase) that ensures competitiveness and strong sell-through, supporting stable margins and responsive delivery to market demand.
- Strategic Acquisitions and Innovation: The integration of acquisitions such as T2Tech Automotive, which enhances NXP’s software defined vehicle (SDV) capabilities, positions the company to capture significant long-term growth in automotive and adjacent segments.
- Risks from pending acquisitions and integration: The additional operating expenses from integrating deals like TT Tech Automotive could pressure margins if the anticipated cost synergies and strategic reprioritizations do not materialize as expected.
- Dependence on automotive inventory normalization: The recovery in the auto segment heavily relies on Tier 1 customers ceasing their inventory burn. If this normalization takes longer than anticipated, sequential growth and overall performance in the key auto segment could be jeopardized.
- Uncertainty in Q4 outlook and channel strategy: The lack of clear guidance for Q4—coupled with potential voluntary increases in channel inventory to remain competitive—poses a risk for margin compression and revenue unpredictability in a historically seasonal period.
Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
---|---|---|
Total Revenue | -6% (Q2 2025: $2,926M vs Q2 2024: $3,127M) | Total revenue declined by approximately 6% YoY in Q2 2025, reflecting a continuation of broad revenue pressures that were evident in Q1 2025 (which saw a 9.3% drop from the prior year). The decline is driven by weaker performance in key end markets—especially in Industrial & IoT and Communication Infrastructure & Other—and lower geographic sales in regions such as Americas. |
Automotive | Essentially flat (Q2 2025: $1,729M vs Q2 2024: $1,728M) | Automotive revenue remained stable in Q2 2025 despite a prior 7.2% decline in Q1 2025, indicating a partial recovery where declining automotive processors and advanced analog sales were offset by improvements in ADAS – Safety products and stabilization of inventory adjustments. |
Industrial & IoT | -11% (Q2 2025: $546M vs Q2 2024: $616M) | Industrial & IoT revenue fell by about 11% YoY, in line with the previous period’s 11.5% decline in Q1 2025, driven primarily by continued weakness in processors and connectivity products. |
Communication Infrastructure & Other | -27% (Q2 2025: $320M vs Q2 2024: $438M) | This segment experienced a 27% YoY decline in Q2 2025, an acceleration from a 21.1% drop in Q1 2025, as further declines in processors and secure cards deepened the weakness in the segment—even though growth in RF power products provided only limited offset. |
Distributors | -9% (Q2 2025: $1,636M vs Q2 2024: $1,804M) | Distributor revenue declined by around 9% YoY, a less severe drop than the 12.4% decline seen in Q1 2025, possibly reflecting a mix shift in sales channels as end-market pressures began to moderate in some segments. |
OEM/EMS | -3% (Q2 2025: $1,257M vs Q2 2024: $1,294M) | OEM/EMS revenue fell modestly by about 3% YoY in Q2 2025, building on a similar downtrend from Q1 2025 (a 5.2% decline), as declines in multiple end markets such as Automotive, Industrial & IoT, and Communication Infrastructure & Other continued to impact direct channel sales. |
Revenue from the Other Segment | +14% (Q2 2025: $33M vs Q2 2024: $29M) | Revenue in the Other segment increased by roughly 14% YoY, suggesting that certain non-core product areas outperformed despite the weakness in larger segments; this improvement contrasts with the declines elsewhere and may indicate localized demand or product mix benefits. |
China | Nearly flat (Q2 2025: $1,088M vs Q2 2024: $1,098M) | China revenue remained virtually unchanged YoY, following a modest 2% increase in Q1 2025; this flat performance highlights regional stability amid broader global declines. |
APAC (excluding China) | -12% (Q2 2025: $790M vs Q2 2024: $898M) | APAC (excluding China) revenue dropped about 12% YoY, which is a less severe decline than the 17.8% drop in Q1 2025, suggesting a slight moderation in the downward trend though regional challenges persist. |
EMEA | Stable (Q2 2025: $674M vs Q2 2024: $676M) | EMEA revenue remained stable at $674M YoY in Q2 2025, marking an improvement over the 13.5% decline seen in Q1 2025, possibly driven by a recovery in demand or an improved product mix, although specific drivers are not detailed. |
Americas | -18% (Q2 2025: $374M vs Q2 2024: $455M) | Americas revenue fell sharply by about 18% YoY in Q2 2025, a deterioration from the 10.7% decline in Q1 2025, reflecting deepening regional weakness likely due to significant drops in key segments such as Communication Infrastructure & Other and other product categories. |
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | Q3 2025 | $2.9 billion, ±$100M | $3,150,000,000, ±$100,000,000 | raised |
Non-GAAP Gross Margin | Q3 2025 | 56.3%, ±50bps | 57%, ±50bps | raised |
Non-GAAP Operating Expenses | Q3 2025 | $710 million, ±$10M | $735,000,000, ±$10,000,000 | raised |
Non-GAAP Operating Margin | Q3 2025 | 31.8% | 33.7% | raised |
Non-GAAP Financial Expense | Q3 2025 | $88 million | $91,000,000 | raised |
Non-GAAP Tax Rate | Q3 2025 | 17.4% | 17.4% | no change |
Non-Controlling Interest | Q3 2025 | no prior guidance | $14,000,000 | no prior guidance |
Results from Equity Account Investees | Q3 2025 | no prior guidance | $1,000,000 | no prior guidance |
Average Share Count | Q3 2025 | 255 million shares | 253,800,000 shares | lowered |
Stock-Based Compensation | Q3 2025 | $115 million | $116,000,000 | raised |
Non-GAAP Earnings Per Share | Q3 2025 | $2.66 | $3.10 | raised |
Capital Expenditures | Q3 2025 | Around 4% of revenue | Around 3% of revenue | lowered |
Investments in Joint Ventures | Q3 2025 | no prior guidance | $225,000,000 capacity access fee; $145,000,000 equity investment; $15,000,000 equity investment | no prior guidance |
Pending Acquisitions | Q3 2025 | $1.1 billion | $550,000,000 | lowered |
Metric | Period | Guidance | Actual | Performance |
---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | Q2 2025 | $2.9B ± $0.1B | $2,926M | Met |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
---|---|---|---|
Automotive Recovery and Cycle Dynamics | Q3 2024 highlighted automotive weakness with inventory digestion and softer demand while Q4 2024 emphasized poor visibility and declining production despite secular growth drivers. In Q1 2025, executives noted a turning point with early signs of recovery and stabilizing order patterns. | In Q2 2025, automotive revenue grew sequentially by 3% with flat year‐on‐year performance, driven by moderating Tier 1 inventory burn and signals of an upcycle (improved customer backlog, increased short-cycle orders). | Improved sentiment: Shift from inventory-induced weakness and uncertainty to early recovery—sequential growth with normalized inventory dynamics indicates a rebound from previous pessimism. |
Inventory Management and Tier 1 Inventory Normalization | Q3 2024 showed channel inventory around 8 weeks with elevated internal inventory and ongoing Tier 1 digestion. Q4 2024 discussed disciplined channel inventory (8 weeks) and the continuing process of inventory normalization. In Q1 2025, higher days of inventory (169 days) and slower inventory digestion were noted. | Q2 2025 reported channel inventory at 9 weeks (below the 11-week target) with reduced internal inventory (from 169 to 158 days). It also highlighted that Western Tier 1 customers are either nearing or at normalized inventory levels, paving the way for growth. | Upward trend: Progress in internal inventory reduction and normalization at Tier 1 customers compared to earlier caution, suggesting a more positive outlook on supply chain efficiency. |
Strategic Acquisitions and Integration Risks | Q3 2024 did not mention acquisitions. In Q4 2024, acquisitions of AVEVA and TTTech Auto were announced to drive automotive connectivity and software-defined vehicle capabilities. In Q1 2025, acquisitions including Kinara, Aviva, and TTTech Auto were discussed as offensive moves with integration plans and controlled OpEx. | Q2 2025 confirmed the closing of the TTTEP Auto acquisition focused on SDV software and noted pending acquisitions (Kinara and AvivaLinks) under regulatory review. The integration strategy continues with a focus on de-prioritizing less strategic areas to manage OpEx. | Consistent execution: The acquisitions topic remains strategic with continued integration efforts. While details evolved from deal announcements (Q1 and Q4) to execution and pending deals in Q2, the tone stays optimistic and disciplined. |
Margin Management and Pricing Power | Q3 2024 reported gross margins around 58.2% impacted by mix and utilization, with plans to rebalance channel inventory. Q4 2024 described a decline of about 120 bps due to standard price negotiations but with a focus on long-term targets of 57–63%. Q1 2025 noted a non-GAAP margin of 56.1% with pricing erosion in the low single digits and aims to leverage cost and utilization improvements. | Q2 2025 reported a non-GAAP gross margin of 56.5% (down 210 bps YoY) but 20 bps above guidance, with anticipated margin improvements (target 57% in Q3 2025) through capacity utilization, cost reductions, inventory adjustments and low single-digit annual price adjustments. | Slight improvement: Although margins remain under pressure from pricing adjustments, the Q2 outlook is supported by operational levers that promise incremental margin improvements compared to earlier periods. |
Geographic Growth in China and Asian Markets | Q3 2024 emphasized that China led sequential growth in both automotive and industrial IoT, driven by innovation and EV penetration. Q4 2024 noted 4% YoY revenue growth in China driven by increased semiconductor content and a strong EV market, with Asia seen as the "brighter side" amid weakness elsewhere. In Q1 2025, a pickup in orders from China and Japan and a dedicated "China-for-China" strategy were highlighted. | Q2 2025 confirmed that China’s automotive market remains robust with strong sequential and YoY growth. Positive innovation trends and competitive discussions with Chinese OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers indicate sustained momentum in the region. | Consistently positive: Strong growth and innovation in China and broader Asian markets are maintained across periods, underscoring a structural strength in these regions. |
Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Market Recovery Timing | Q3 2024 reflected heightened macro weakness in Europe and North America with cautious guidance for Q1 2025 and no clear recovery timing. Q4 2024 noted poor visibility due to late order patterns with a weak macro environment and flat guidance for Q1 2025. In Q1 2025, recovery was anticipated in Q2 with cautious remarks amid persistent uncertainties. | In Q2 2025, despite ongoing tariff-related uncertainties, there was clear mention of improved signals (growing customer backlogs, increased short-cycle orders, product shortages) along with confidence in the start of a new upcycle, marking a turnaround from previous caution. | Improved outlook: While macroeconomic uncertainty persists, Q2 2025 shows clearer signals of recovery compared to earlier quarters, suggesting an emerging upcycle despite external risks. |
Emerging Tariff and Trade Impact Risks | Q4 2024 assured that tariff impacts were immaterial with uncertainties not affecting guidance. In Q1 2025, tariff impacts were described as immaterial in direct effects but with unclear indirect effects, emphasizing careful monitoring. Q3 2024 did not mention this topic. | In Q2 2025, the discussion remained that the direct impact of tariffs was immaterial with no significant abnormal order movements. The company continued disciplined inventory management to mitigate any potential future disruptions. | Stable view: Consistent messaging across periods with minimal direct impact from tariffs while indirect effects remain under watch; the tone remains measured and stable. |
Decline in Communication Infrastructure due to End-of-Life Products | Q4 2024 discussed the decline in digital networking products (a 30% component of the segment experiencing end-of-life) leading to a material revenue drop in that subsegment, although offset by growth in secure card/RFID areas. Q1 2025 and Q2 2025 did not mention this topic. | Q3 2024 did not mention this decline. In the current period (Q2 2025) there is no mention of a decline in communication infrastructure due to end-of-life products. | No longer a focus: Previously reported in Q4 2024, this topic is absent in more recent periods, suggesting it is no longer a material or high-priority issue for the company. |
-
Automotive Outlook
Q: When will auto revenue grow?
A: Management noted that the automotive business, which was flat year‐over‐year in Q2, is showing mid single-digit sequential growth in Q3 as tier-one inventory burn eases, setting the stage for organic, end-demand growth. -
Margin Impact
Q: How are margins affected overall?
A: Despite higher utilization and deliberate fabs consolidation, Q2 gross margins held at 56.5% and Q3 guidance is around 57%, with modest OpEx absorption from acquisitions having minimal adverse impact. -
Acquisition Impact
Q: How do acquisitions influence performance?
A: The recently closed TTTech Automotive contributes an immaterial revenue impact while its associated OpEx is offset by portfolio adjustments, keeping the overall financial model intact through 2027. -
Cyclical Recovery
Q: Is cyclical confidence rising?
A: Management expressed growing confidence in a new up-cycle, with improved signals over the past ninety days such as higher short-cycle orders and growing customer backlogs. -
Channel Inventory
Q: When will channel inventory increase?
A: The company maintains its current nine-week channel inventory, with plans to potentially raise it to eleven weeks in Q3 or Q4 if signals like order backlog and escalations continue robustly. -
Tariff Impact
Q: Are tariffs affecting orders materially?
A: Tariff effects have been immaterial due to disciplined inventory management and AI-based order monitoring that promptly flags any deviations from normal patterns. -
SDV Investment
Q: Are OEMs investing in SDV?
A: Management observes that auto OEMs are actively ramping up investments in software-defined vehicles, viewing SDV as crucial for competitiveness despite industry headwinds. -
Auto Geography
Q: How is auto recovery varying geographically?
A: Growth is solid in China, Japan, and Asia-Pacific, while easing inventory issues in Europe and the U.S. are beginning to allow natural demand to drive auto shipments. -
Internal Inventory
Q: Will internal inventory days drop?
A: Internal inventory improved from 169 to 158 days in Q2, with Q3 expected to be similar and a year-end target of 6–7 days of prebuilt stock from consolidation initiatives. -
Segment Growth
Q: Will auto outpace industrial growth?
A: Both the automotive and industrial/IoT segments are projected to grow in the 8–12% range midterm, reflecting balanced opportunities driven by evolving market cycles. -
Inventory Target
Q: Is 11 weeks the channel target?
A: Yes, eleven weeks is the established long-term target for channel inventory, aligning with pre-crisis norms and ensuring ongoing competitiveness. -
TTTech Revenue
Q: Is TTTech's revenue material?
A: TTTech’s revenue remains insignificant relative to overall NXP performance, although its team of 1,100 engineers is key for future software-defined vehicle integration. -
Q4 Guidance
Q: Can Q4 exceed seasonal trends?
A: While Q4 guidance is based on flat to slightly up seasonality, management noted that robust sell-through could drive above-seasonal growth even without further channel inventory increases.